The COVID-19 Vaccine Will Define the Economy in 2021

Nathan McDonald
5 min readDec 16, 2020


By now I’m sure that you have already had one, two or possibly even more conversations with family and friends about the rapidly approaching wave of COVID-19 vaccinations that are about to inoculate the world.

Without a doubt and I believe unarguably at this point, this will be the most dominating news headline as we head into 2021 and as we proceed throughout the year.

The rollout of this vaccine, its success rate and the ability for officials around the world to convince a large enough percentage of the population to take it are all contributing factors in how the global economy for 2021 is going to be defined.

The question is, how will it all play out?

The COVID-19 Debate Rages On

On one side, you have a large percentage of the population eagerly anticipating the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, with the majority of governments eager to get their hands on as many doses, as quickly as possible.

On the other side of the aisle, you have a smaller, however still very significant percentage of the population who are questioning the COVID-19 vaccine, whether it be from the angle of how rapidly it was developed, or how the long term effects are yet unknown.

I am not here to argue either side of the debate, however, it is undeniable that this topic is only in its early days and is going to rapidly become the “hot” topic of 2021, that will divide many friends and family members.

Those on the side of being “anti” the COVID-19 vaccine are not isolated to just those who are considered anti-vaxxers in general, with approximately 40% of the American population having some form of reluctance to get the vaccine.

Obviously, those deemed anti-vaxxers in general are naturally on this side of the argument, however, many prominent figures have stepped forth, who are typically pro vaccine, arguing against it.

One of the most recent people to join these ranks is Kyler Kemper, the half-brother of Justin Trudeau, the latter of which is the Prime Minister of Canada.

The National Post reports;

Kemper said there remains a “gigantic divide” in the scientific community over the COVID response. “Vaccine manufacturers are exempt from liability. That scares me. There are so many ways we can improve our immune systems to counter coronavirus. The sun gives us vitamin D and it’s great for the immune system. But Justin and the public health officials don’t tell people to get outside and get vitamin D,” he said.

Kemper said “the global health dictatorship” has imposed a response that has ultimately made people less healthy, with rising levels of suicide and depression, as well as “obliterating” small businesses such as the seven restaurants his family runs in Ottawa.

“It does not warrant all this hype and mania and doesn’t necessitate an experimental vaccine being rushed to market,” he said.

Some of the points that Kemper states are similar to arguments that you have heard throughout the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the fact that there are ramifications to the lockdown, such as higher rates of substance abuse, depression and suicide.

Meanwhile, those who are in favor of the lockdowns state that without the lockdowns, COVID-19 would be even more severe of problem than it already is, with a magnitude more of lives being lost due to the pandemic running unchecked.

Hindsight is 2020 as they say.

Additionally, it is true that an ungodly amount of resources have been dedicated to developing an effective COVID-19 vaccine, with over 200 companies working day and night to discover an effective treatment.

This has resulted in a discovery rate that would typically take years to uncover in a standard vaccine clinical study, meaning that in all likelihood the COVID-19 vaccines that have been approved by many countries in the West are deemed safe, at least in the short term.

Vaccine Manufacturers Will Not be Held Accountable for Long Term Effects?

Even though a monumental amount of resources have been dedicated to discovering an effective COVID-19 vaccine and even though companies can guarantee that the COVID-19 vaccines being issued are safe in the short term, they however cannot state definitively that they are safe in the long term.

This is the major sticking point for many people around the world who are currently reluctant to take the COVID-19 vaccine immediately, as even the companies themselves have made governments sign off on liability protection against COVID-19 vaccine related injuries.

As stated in the New England Journal of Medicine;

“Equally important is offering companies protection against potentially substantial liability should Covid-19 vaccines cause real or perceived injuries to recipients. Manufacturers won’t agree to procurement contracts or ship vaccine without liability protection.

According to an AstraZeneca executive, for example, in the company’s bilateral contracts, it has been granted protection against legal claims arising from the use of its vaccine products, since it “cannot take the risk” of liability.”

Ironically, a statement out of Australia was just released today, indicating that one of their COVID-19 vaccine trials would have to be stopped, as a number of participants received false positives for HIV after being inoculated with their version of the vaccine.

Zerohedge reports;

The Australian government has canceled further development of a COVID-19 vaccine after several trial participants had false positive tests for HIV. The vaccine was being developed by the University of Queensland, while Australian biotech company CSL Limited had been under contract to provide 51 million doses. The vaccine had been on schedule for mid-2021, with phase two and three clinical trials due to commence in December.

“Our processes will not be compromised. At the end of the day, the Therapeutic Goods Administration — like with any vaccine in Australia — must give their tick-off. Without the tick, there’s no jab when it comes to vaccines in this country. That is true for the Covid-19 vaccine, as it is true for any other vaccine that is administered here in Australia,” Morrison added.

On the other side of the argument, this should be considered good news, as things may be rushed, but at least checks and balancing are still being applied, with the safety of the vaccine being paramount, as a botched rollout of the COVID-19 would have long lasting negative effects on the vaccine industry in general for decades to come.

In Conclusion

I believe that this debate is going to rage on well into 2021, with many armchair doctors rising up to do battle against one another over many family dinners for months to come.

Regardless of which side of the debate you stand on, you cannot deny the fact that a safe, effective COVID-19 vaccine that is accepted in the hearts and minds of the majority of the worlds population is paramount to the health of the global economy in 2021.

Without it, it is unlikely that government officials will lift all lockdown restrictions, restrictions that have utterly killed the travel industry and so many other sectors of the economy.

Sadly, it appears that 2021 is set to be yet another turbulent year, continuing on with the trend set in 2020.

Until then, stay safe and as always, keep stacking.

- Source, Nathan McDonald via the Sprott Money Blog



Nathan McDonald

Financial journalist with over 10 years of experience. Writing about geopolitics, economics and all things related to precious metals.